It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When the England international swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
