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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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