Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
