A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
