Newly disclosed documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".
Government Documents Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader
Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.
Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.
Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective
Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.
Options outlined in the documents were:
- "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
- "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."
The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".
Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles
It warned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."
The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."
Long-Term Strategy Advocated
The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."
The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".
The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.
